Nature Transition Support Programme (NTSP): Ecosystem–Economy Modeling and Policy Applications (Global)

This project integrates ecosystem service modeling with macroeconomic analysis to quantify how nature underpins economic performance and informs policy and investment decisions across multiple countries. NatCap Lead: UMN NatCap TEEMs. Collaborators: UNEP World Conservation Monitoring Centre (UNEP-WCMC) and United Nations Development Programme (UNDP). Funding: UK Department for Environment, Food & Rural Affairs (DEFRA).

The Challenge

Economic systems depend fundamentally on ecosystem services such as pollination, water regulation, fisheries, and carbon sequestration, yet these contributions are largely invisible in traditional economic metrics and planning processes. As climate change and land-use pressures intensify, the degradation of natural capital poses growing risks to economic stability, development outcomes, and financial systems. Existing policy frameworks often lack the tools to quantify and integrate these risks into decision-making.

Our Solution

Through the Nature Transition Support Programme (NTSP), NatCap TEEMs and partners apply the GTAP-InVEST modeling framework to link ecosystem service dynamics with macroeconomic outcomes, including GDP, trade, and sectoral productivity. This approach enables countries to evaluate the economic implications of nature loss and the benefits of nature-based solutions under different policy and climate scenarios. Phase II (starting by June 2026) focuses on a flagship application in Indonesia, alongside targeted follow-on support to Colombia, Ecuador, and Ghana (Phase I countries). The work also advances integration of climate dynamics into ecological–economic models, including ongoing development of a recursive dynamic Earth–economy framework. Through policy engagement, training, and knowledge products, the project supports countries in using these insights to inform planning, investment, and resilience strategies.

Top banner image photo credit: SAKDAWUT14/iStock.